The need for nuance in India-Pakistan relations

India is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Since its member countries cover a large landmass and population of Eurasia, its deliberations are important for Delhi. Therefore, India’s representation at its meetings should be a routine affair. But not when a meeting takes place in Pakistan, as is the case with the SCO Heads of Government meeting on October 15 and 16. After all, no senior Indian functionary has visited Pakistan since defence minister Rajnath Singh did in August 2016 to attend the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) home/interior ministers’ meeting. Saarc remains stalled since Delhi’s decision in 2016 not to attend its summit scheduled to take place in Islamabad.
The suspense over India’s participation at the SCO meet ended with the government announcement that external affairs minister (EAM) S Jaishankar would attend the meeting. That triggered speculation if a bilateral engagement on its margins is on the cards. The minister, however, clarified that he was not going to Islamabad to discuss bilateral relations, but to be a good member of SCO. Notwithstanding the remark, unstructured pull-aside interactions are not unknown in such situations. But even if it takes place, the moot question is if it can make any difference to the bilateral relationship.
Pakistan remains fixated on India reversing its August 5, 2019 move (abrogation of Article 370) for any bilateral engagement. India will have to see whether restoration of statehood to Jammu & Kashmir, whenever our government deems it appropriate, amounts to a face-saver for Pakistan. Anti-India rhetoric by the army-led Pakistani establishment remains high. And, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s aggressive anti-India stance in his recent United Nations (UN) General Assembly speech was anything but a signal for constructive engagement.
Islamabad’s preoccupation with its internal problems also makes it difficult for a major foreign policy initiative. Teetering on the brink of a sovereign default, its economy has got a reprieve as a result of the recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout package of $7 billion. Terror and violence remain rife. Political polarisation is at its peak, with the recent agitation by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf paralysing Islamabad to the point of raising concerns about holding the SCO meeting in that city. On the Indian side, the political discourse in recent years has tapped into the justified public anger at Pakistan’s conduct and shrunk the space for diplomacy.
Against this backdrop, the chances of any positive development on the bilateral front during EAM Jaishankar’s visit remain slim. However, it is good that Delhi has eschewed a dogmatic approach by deciding to send the minister to the SCO meeting. Besides being appropriate in the context of India’s SCO membership, it may also offer an opportunity to gauge the intentions of the Pakistani establishment behind its jarring public rhetoric.
While speaking of the current impasse in the relationship, a few notes of caution may be in order. First, the relative calm on the western front, largely due to Pakistan’s internal preoccupations, should not lull India into complacency. If, as is more likely, Pakistan recovers from its current crisis, India may again see heightened adventurism from across the border. If, on the other hand, as some predict and shortsightedly wish, the crisis-ridden Pakistani State moves towards a collapse, it may result in an unbridled sea of turmoil and extremism at India’s doorstep. Therefore, Pakistan remains a major challenge that needs to be dealt with by all the instrumentalities at Delhi’s disposal, including diplomacy.
Second, India’s focus on Pakistan as its primary threat over the years has now shifted to China. This makes a case for keeping the western frontier as calm as possible. This imperative and Pakistan’s desire to calm things down given its growing internal challenges led to the restoration of the LoC ceasefire in February 2021 following behind-the-scenes dialogues. It was an indicator, like similar steps in the past, that though the complete normalisation of the India-Pakistan relationship remains a long shot, bilateral engagement can reduce its volatility and help in its better management. This should not be lost sight of.
Third, after a long period of turmoil and the absence of elections to the state assembly since 2014, the people of Jammu & Kashmir have yet again given a thumping endorsement to the democratic process under the Indian Constitution through their participation in large numbers, both in the Lok Sabha and the recent assembly elections. Respect for their democratic choice and mature handling by the Centre and the elected state leadership could pave the way for a new dawn in Jammu & Kashmir, though the process will face both internal and external challenges. Political parties in the region have been calling for dialogue with Pakistan to secure peace. Though Pakistan does not have a veto over India’s constructive moves in Jammu & Kashmir, its disruptive actions, even if largely contained by the security forces, can cause problems as evidenced by the uptick in Pakistan-sponsored terror in the Jammu region.
In the face of Pakistan’s threatening posture, deterrence and a punitive approach have remained a part of India’s repertoire to deal with it. Delhi has two broad options at this juncture. Not letting up pressure on Pakistan and exercising a punitive approach — overt and covert — sounds tempting. However, in this case, India should be prepared for greater turmoil on its western border as Pakistan would seek to build counter-pressure through terrorism. An alternative would be to continue exercising a calibrated punitive approach while keeping an eye out for opportunities to enhance stability on the western frontier through bilateral diplomacy.
In this context, it may be noted that Jaishankar hinted recently that India would not be unresponsive to any positive moves by Pakistan.
Sharat Sabharwal is a former high commissioner to Pakistan and author of India’s Pakistan Conundrum: Managing a Complex Relationship. The views expressed are personal